Joel S

Derisking Likely OutcomesThere are several strategies that come down to a likely but uncertain outcome actually happening and the stock reacting positively to the realized improved business. Producer Expanding ProductionIn 2025 I invested in 5 miners, the only 2 with positive returns expanded production during the time I held them.

I'm writing this because one of my positions went down 23% compared to the previous day close.  It got me thinking about what happens on these massive one day drawdowns not in this particular case, but overall. Should I be greedy when others are fearful of bad assays or mine

Doing a portfolio review a few days early as of Dec 19th. My portfolio is -6.57% year to date, which is embarrassing. There's not really a point in being an active investor if you can't outperform passive ETFs. There's really no point if you are going to lose money.

Most tax loss advice goes like sell stuff you are down on to offset your gains. It's pretty straightforward and there's lots of people who write about it.  That's not this article. This article is going to look at the overlap of commodities that are down resulting in stocks that

I had this in my drafts and decided it's about time to hit publish.  Apologies for the incoherent nature. As the saying goes, "I would have written a shorter letter, but I did not have the time". Return to FundamentalsAs we look at lithium we need to figure out if

Random things I think I think about lithium. Underground Still Doesn't WorkMt Catlin planned to transition from open pit to underground. They have now stopped stripping for open pit and announced complete closure by 2025. This is an existing operation with a workforce, plant, and other equipment already in place.

If you can't grow it you have to mine it. Electric cars, windmills, solar panels, computers, roads, bridges. Most of modern life relies on mining. There are hard working honest professionals building real companies that generate wealth. There are also charlatans that destroy wealth and try to dishonorably take the

Osisko mining is living the dream today, they got taken out at C$4.90, which is a 55% premium to their 20 day average trading price, and a bigger premium to yesterday's close.  Woohoo! Share price +63% today. I didn't have a position in Osisko but this is good

One of the investment strategies we like is Pre-Production Sweet Spot where you more or less buy at construction decision (after financing and permitting are in place) and sell at first pour.   Default: Buy at fully permitted and fully fundedSell at First PourPre Production Sweet SpotThis page compiles from previous

June 12 I exited Trident at 0.40 for around a -20% loss. June 13 they got an all cash offer for 0.49, which had I sold a day later would have brought me to roughly breakeven.  Unlucky timing, but what else happened? Revising the Original ThesisThe initial thesis

Red Hill share price has done pretty well since I wrote about it (and since I bought shares myself and exited yesterday +53.9%).  I think there is still upside to shares, but I exited as I was looking to free up cash for other positions in my portfolio I

One of the things I've gone into in several ways in great detail on this blog is that on average within a given commodity the royalty companies outperform the physical metal which outperforms the large miners which outperform the junior miners. See for example these couple entries: Work On Your

I like to stay humble as an investor and there no better way for me to do that than starting off with a chart of Ivanhoe Mines, a company I looked at and liked and didn't invest in.  Oh look, a 10 bagger I watched go by. Ivanhoe is two

Junior mining has long been a place where bad management has a free hand to abuse investors. It's early, but two data points is all you need to show the start of a trend, and we have two data points that Twitter is having an influence in ousting some of

Making it's rounds recently on Mintwit is the Warren Buffet quote. If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved

James Bay is quickly becoming a lithium spodumene region. I'm going to zoom in on some of the emerging districts, starting with what I'm calling the Adina district. It's basically the Adina project and surrounding projects. Pros Early met work from Wnsome indicate circa 75% DMS recoveries. DMS much less

I'm flexible and adjust my strategies to where I find opportunity in the market. All I know about 2024 is that I will be wrong a lot and don't know anything yet. But here's my prognostication for investing strategies for 2024. Royalty Space ConsolidationRoyalties were one of the 3 proven

Why I'm Doing This ReviewInvesting is hard.  Even the best investors will have some horrible misses. I'm a capital allocator and it's important to be honest where I've made mistakes and where I've been successful, and how each might change going forward. My portfolio returned 34.48% overall, not a

Or why I learned to stop worrying and buy spodumene projects. I'm not an expert in this area. But this blog is free, so you get to read things as I'm figuring them out. How Markets WorkIn free markets the price is set by the marginal producer matched with the

Vicuña 2.0 is a theme that much of mintwit is invested in, myself included. The Lundin group is developing the region through several publicly traded vehicles like Lunding Mining, Filo, and NGEX. Today I want to talk about the impact to the royalty companies: Elemental Altus, Sandstorm (by way

I talked in Money For NothingMonish Pabrai has a quote in his book Dhando Investor I really like: “Heads I win; tails I don’t lose much.” The idea here is to think about your upside potential and compare it to the downside risk. Realize that these are often not

A Plea To All ExplorersPlease put all your drill results into a downloadable spreadsheet.  It is super annoying to copy/paste all your drill result data from all your press releases. OverviewPre-discovery you are mostly watching for if your explorer can find a grade thickness (grade in g/t times

There's so much value to be created in the mining industry if certain deals could just be made. Big royalty companies with low cost of capital buying out small or mid sized royalty companies with good assets and good generation programs. JV partners in awkward alliances with cross purpose incentives.

Monish Pabrai has a quote in his book Dhando Investor I really like: "Heads I win; tails I don't lose much." The idea here is to think about your upside potential and compare it to the downside risk. Realize that these are often not related. Sure,  investments with more upside

This is a a tweet that got too long. When you are looking at lithium brine companies before they have a flowsheet what contaminants do you need to be concerned about? I'm not an expert in this area, but here's what I've gleaned after some reading.  If this is inaccurate